Great post. I would challenge the assertion on short risk however. The company is facing a binary event (Malaysian Fab start up). The upside is priced in. The downside is not. The short interest is a reflection of this. Just my two cents
Largely agreed there, but production there starts in Q2 2024, right? (It's possible I'm missing something on that front.) My point was that the binary event seems a good ways off.
(we also posted a COIN short idea like two months ago so maybe we're a bit gun-shy)
I tend to agree with Vince here. Yes the stock could collapse. But it's also a story stock with a large retail following. It's akin to shorting Tesla or GME back in 2021. I guess you can mitigate that risk with options. But aren't there better short opportunities out there? Get your point though, thanks for chipping in.
I think if the Malaysia deal falls apart, we will learn of it much sooner than that. But otherwise, no objections otherwise. COIN is an excellent example of the market doing ~that thing it does~ from time to time, always good to remind oneself of that
Great post. I would challenge the assertion on short risk however. The company is facing a binary event (Malaysian Fab start up). The upside is priced in. The downside is not. The short interest is a reflection of this. Just my two cents
Largely agreed there, but production there starts in Q2 2024, right? (It's possible I'm missing something on that front.) My point was that the binary event seems a good ways off.
(we also posted a COIN short idea like two months ago so maybe we're a bit gun-shy)
I tend to agree with Vince here. Yes the stock could collapse. But it's also a story stock with a large retail following. It's akin to shorting Tesla or GME back in 2021. I guess you can mitigate that risk with options. But aren't there better short opportunities out there? Get your point though, thanks for chipping in.
I think if the Malaysia deal falls apart, we will learn of it much sooner than that. But otherwise, no objections otherwise. COIN is an excellent example of the market doing ~that thing it does~ from time to time, always good to remind oneself of that
I missed out on this one. Definitely great analysis